What are you're bets going to be boys ? My humble opinion on the fight.. I try my best to find the value in bets, and at first glance I think Cotto is too heavy a favourite in this fight. Looking at Betfair right now.. Cotto to win is at 1.14 Mayorga to win 7.6 Cotto - KO, TKO, DQ - 1.3 ( although i think if you wait you'll get a better price, other online bookies are giving as much as 1.5 ) Cotto - Decision - 3.3 ( Some bookies giving odds of up to 4.0 ) Mayorga - KO, TKO, DQ - 6 ( Horrible odds on this outcome, looking at odds checker you can get odds of up to 17.0 ) Mayorga - Decision - 15.0 ( up to 21.0 at other online bookies ) Draw 14.0 ( can get odds of up to 46 according to betchecker ) I think that generally people overrate Cotto and his power at 154 and underrate his boxing ability, at least that is what the odds reflect. In Cottos last 5 fights he been TKO twice ( late rounds ) won a SD to J Clottey ( i think a good win, but i feel he'd lost a step by this point ) and 2 TKO wins to a couple of reasonably good fighters. I think Cotto has most of his trouble when up against physically stronger fighters. Margarito and Clottey spring to mind. Margarito could loosely be compared to Mayorga in that they've both got very strong chins and not very skillful. But you cannot forget that Margarito has incredible Stamina and output. I think that Cotto gets incredibly disheartened when his opponent eats his best shot and i think Mayorga is capable of doing this. Cotto would be happy to win a decision should that happen. Mayorgas last 5 fights has been similar, 2 KO losses, a MD to F. Vargas ( i think a good win ) and a couple wins to some reasonable opposition. Now I think Vargas in his fight with Mayorga looked very similar in style to Cotto as of late. If the same Mayorga that turned up for that fight comes to fight Cotto, i think Cotto will definitely have his hands full. I also think that Mayorgas ability to win by decision is very very underrated. Mayorga beat Vargas and Forrest by Decision, losing to Spinks by MD and losing to Mosley by SD before the KO. Out of 4 of his last wins, 3 of them have been by decision. Of course his last 3 losses have all been by KO/TKO but in my opinion Trinidad/De la hoya and Mosley are all in a different league to Cotto when it comes to power. Now i've split my bet into 10 units. ( Take into account im stuck with betfair odds and options. Also remember that i'm betting value, not necessarly picking a winning outcome ) if i can get odds of about 3.8 - Cotto Decision i will use 7 of my units to bet on that outcome. as for the other 3 i'll be on Mayorga to win at odds of 7.6-7.8 ( although im tempted to bet this 3 at Mayorga dec 15.0 ) Extremely dangerous bet. But i feel this is where the value is. I'm aware of Cottos bodywork and Mayorgas weakness being his body, but also i think Mayorgas the biggest fighter Cotto has faced so far which neutralizes that to a degree. Also if you look at an article on the scene Manny Steward says that hes been training Cotto to just box, which i interpret as they may be looking at a decision victory. not to mention that Cotto may be hesitant to stay inside with Mayorgas power. If i had to pick a winning outcome..i would pick Cotto by KO/TKO mid / late rounds According to oddschecker Cotto - win in rounds 7-9 - 4.33 Cotto - win in 10-12 - 7.0 Cotto - win in 7-12 - 2.75 Let me know what your opinions are i'd love to hear them. Take it easy