Its a tough one, and to be honest iam not sure, but because of my nationality i pick Kessler by way of knockout!
Kessler - lost to Ward, we still dont know what that means - maybe Ward is just that good or maybe Kessler is on the decline. but you gotta think Kessler is gonna come out and give it his all at home vs Froch. Froch - never beaten but looks so beatable. 2 of my favorite fighters and I am looking forward to it a lot. Too close to call but I favor Kessler slightly.
From Vivek Wallace's mail bag: Alexander R. (Manhattan, NY): Who do you like in the pending showdown of Mikkel Kessler and Carl Froch? VW doesn't seem to even consider that Kessler has slipped since his glory days. Sure he's not especially ring worn, but he's been living in Monaco for the 5 yeears (something like that). Not good for motivation or year round conditioning.
Kessler hasn't been regularly training for the past two years (at least not as hard and intelligently as he should have). He was in a long trial with his mentor and former manager/promotor Mogens Palle. Palle has been in the dressing room and at ring side for EVERY SINGLE fight of Kessler's since Kessler was a teen. The first time ever that Mogens was not in at ringside was for the Calzaghe fight. Mogens was in hospital under observation for serious heart problems. Thereafter the internal dirty fighting started and Mogens hasn't been there since. This means that Kessler hasn't had a boss with power look over him since then. Consequently Kessler has been living the sweet life in Monaco, Thailand, Denmark, The UK etc. He will undoubtedly come in decent shape because he is not one to get overweight between fights... however, he will need to take this fight FAR more seriously than he did Ward. Otherwise there is a sure L waiting for him. Will not be easy as he recently fired his trainer he has had since he was a teen. So now the two central people he relied upon his entire carreer are both gone. This could be good, because his manager was a scoundrel in some ways, and his trainer isn't a wizard exactly, but psychologically it must be tough to change everything like that - and have no structure in his preparations.
It depends on what version of Froch shows up. If Froch cannot land anything heavy on Kessler and Froch doesn't bring any rough and dirty tactics I believe Kessler could look good without even being at his best. Otherwise Kessler needs to step it it up from the Ward fight.
I think it really depends on what version of Kessler shows up. If it a Kessler who lacks confidence, who seems to want to survive more than to want to win, whose snap, speed and precision are gone, Froch has a good chance.
What he has been missing is strucktured training and dicipline, thats what he'll get now. Froch is in for a flogging.