How in the hell is PW the favorite for the Quintana rematch!!???

might be because more people are actually putting money on PW than Quintana.

 

:good It's about time we agree.

 

most of your arguments actually support my claim, that the odds are mainly based on what the oddsmakers expect the outcome to be, and secondly on how people place their bets.

here is a definition I found in an online dictionary of an oddsmaker

odds·mak·er
n. One who calculates and sets betting odds based on the prediction of the result of a contest such as a horserace or an election.

 

Don't know why Paul Williams is the favorite considering he was beat very convincingly by Carlos Quintana. I could see if it was a close fight that could have gone either way, but it wasn't.

 

:good

If you think the odds are that wrong, simply put money on Quintana and you have double the satisfaction . . .if he wins of course.

 

No it does not. I don't know how you concluded that. That NFL example that I gave you, the one where the Patriots were 24 point favorites, the Patriots ended up winning by 3 points. The Patriots were 11 1/2 point favorites in the Super Bowl, they lost that game. Oddsmakers have to get even money on both sides. Otherwise, they expose themselves to huge losses. Their entire goal is set the odds so that people bet evenly on both sides.

here is a definition I found in an online dictionary of an oddsmaker


"odds·mak·er
n. One who calculates and sets betting odds based on the prediction of the result of a contest such as a horserace or an election."

This definition doesn't even help your argument. All it states is that they set odds that are based on the result of a competition. Meaning that they set odds on whether or not someone or something wins or loses. We already know this.

 

He's making $400,000, which was the same amount Steve Forbes received (after $200,000 to The Contender) to fight De La Hoya.

I'll tell you what Carlos can do differently. He can show up in better condition. Quintana's biggest challenge in that fight was his gas tank. The early rounds he won fairly easily and decisively. It wasn't until the second half of the fight, when he gassed and began fighting in spurts that Paul was able to win rounds. Paul won rounds when Quintana wasn't letting his hands go. When Quintana was letting his hands go, Paul had no answer. I'd say Quintana showing up in better conditioning is more realistic than Paul, in a whole 6 months, learning how to properly cut off the ring, not pull straight back, or keeping his lead hand low after some 30 odd professional fights.


[YT]0U-0i0GxBUg[/YT]

 

This statement is flat out wrong for the major sports, where the books can and do set "weak" lines for the public to jump all over. Yes the books only need to rake in "juice" to stay profitable, but there's a reason you don't usually want to "follow the public" in baseball, basketball, and football. Public plays lose more often than they win, and those plays sure aren't reflecting who the oddsmakers thought would win the game.

Boxing is a fringe sport where tracking percentages isn't as easy. But just going by how many people here immediately said "I'd bet on Quintana at this number", my guess is that Vegas likes Williams enough to leave a "soft" line out for a while to soak up early Quintana money.

Let's put it like this. In the aftermath of Quintana - Williams, +800 on Carlos looked silly. Now ask yourself how many people actually cashed in on that number. If you did, great, but I bet Vegas made a killing on P-Dub money that night. The UD/ KO props for Williams were only in the -140 range.

 

no matter how much they made on the PW money that night, they would have made even more money with shorter odds. Better odds on PW would have attracted even more money.

 

Im not a fan of either fighter particularly (i do like Quintana's style he uses though). But after the Williams - Marg fight, i couldnt believe how highly people rated Williams because of it, Margarito blocked and parried so many of the punches Williams got credit for. And Marg basically doesnt have a defense to speak of. Williams missed his way to a decision that night!! (messing, but not totally though). What i noticed that night was, Williams' jab is awful, not accurate, not stiff, just awful for the way he tries to use it, which is to attack you behind it, he tries to ram you with the jab and then get inside, at least they were his tactics against Quintana. And Quintana, just blocked it all-night and came over the top, and roughed him up with hooks and overhands, why? because that jab is terrible. I thought the Marg fight was so much closer than what the tv people had it, but Williams won that fight with counters, not the jab.

 

I got Williams in the rematch too. Despite the fact that Quintana will likely pull out the ole ugly punch and grab yet again, I feel the Williams team has done their homework this time. His punches should be much sharper and much more compact than last time out.

 

As they were they attracted a ton. The line moved from -600 to -800 in favor of Williams that week. It's possible that was false movement, but more likely that Williams backers kept drilling that big line.

Just for the record, I like Quintana this time to do it again, but I have a hard time seeing him giving as comprehensive of a schooling, just because I don't think the overall talent disparity is that big here. As has been said already, conditioning will be absolutely critical.

 

:huh What are you talking about? Check out that highlight vid I posted above. There was about 3 clinches in the whole video, and everyone was initiated by Paul after getting tagged.

 

Quintana did lunge in and hold alot.

 

i dont know i think is Deja Vu all over again
put my money on Quintana, i dont think that Paul can make any significally adjustments, or however its spelled