It’s hard to see a way for AJ to win which is a shame because I do believe he has the attributes to KO Fury if he approached the fight the right way. He is too broken mentally, still over cautious not to impact his legacy, and too obsessed to demonstrate he is a good boxer rather than using his strengths. This along with all the other challenges the OP mentioned, including his relatively weak chin, and there is nothing other than a punchers chance for him as I see it. Hope I am wrong as I am hoping for a cracking fight. Despite not being a fan of AJ I would like to see him restore some pride win, lose or draw. Unfortunately, he will aim to do that by damage limitation rather than truly doing what he needs to do to have any chance of winning.
You can “feel like” AJ didn’t get beat up, that doesn’t change the fact that in reality, AJ objectively got beat up. How is being dropped 4 times in 7 rounds not an ass-whooping?
I think his chances of beating Fury are greater than that of Usyk, not necessarily because Usyk is better, but because Usyk is all wrong for AJ stylistically. Smaller, quicker fights cause AJ the most problems - Povetkin, Ruiz, Usyk, except Usyk was closer to his prime unlike Pov, and actually has a good boxing brain unlike Ruiz. Usyk is everything that AJ wouldn't want in opposition. Fury is not as quick and a bigger target.
"Smaller, quicker fights cause AJ the most problems" This is a cope for the fact that AJ has overwhelmingly fought small fighters, which suggests that he has an easier time with them if anything and he certainly has more experience against fighters closer to that height/reach range. Fury also has speed and agility over AJ. 41 year old, 17 months inactive, winless in 2 years, KO-less in 2.5 years, dethroned, retirement fight B-side Wlad in Britain was the last 6'5+ man AJ fought and it was a life and death war which damaged AJ's confidence. Prior to that, SHW Breazeale took AJ 7 rounds despite being very slow and defensively open, just a big tough guy with determination. "Usyk is everything that AJ wouldn't want in opposition." Usyk was a light puncher at the top level at cruiser, never mind heavy. AJ said in 2018 that he wasn't worried about anyone outskilling him but he did worry about "that one punch". Unlike Usyk, AJ will fear that Fury will break him mentally in the buildup, outbox, ragdoll and KO him in the ring, not play pitty patter for 12 rounds.