I'm picking Froch, i'm picking Hatton

HATTON

1 - Will be the first man to test Pacquiao's punch resistance above 130.

2 - Will be the first man Pacquiao faces who is weighting 150+ in the ring.

3 - Is fighting at a weight where he has dominated the competition


That's enough for me, but in addition -

PACQUIAO

1 - Has looked like he wants to quit to me in the past. I think Hatton will test this part of the smaller man to the maximum.

2 - Is an "on top" fighter. My theory is that 1 and 2 combined will make it very difficult for him to adjust - and he may have to make double adjustments if he is already bringing something "totally new", as Roach is claiming.


What I expect to see -

Pacquiao doing really well early. I don't agree that this fight is going to be that messy in the beginning. It will be the bull and the matador with Pacquiao baiting, staying on his toes, using lateral movement and scoring of the angles. This will continue until Hatton starts to score. I expect him to look and be the bigger man in the ring and suffer to land his shots accordingly. If he can turn Pacquiao from offence to defence - by a little, not by a lot, i don't expect Pac to run or anything like that - I think he will start to win rounds. I also think he will start to hurt Pacquiao more and more to the body.

Pacquiao is going to have to keep out of clinches and out of Hatton's bulling at mid-range to avoid Ricky's best work. But Hatton has fast feet, even if he lacks Pacquiao's agility - Hatton going forwards is going to be as quick as Pac using lateral moves. So I expect to see a lot of body-checking and maybe even a clash of heads. It is difficult to say in who's favour this works - Hatton, who's superior size and strength will aid him in accidental clashes, or Pac, who is less likely to cut in a serious way based upon their track records. When Pac does escape cleanly, Hatton will be right after him, although this is when he will pay the dearest price in shipped punches. Meahwhile, let's remember that Oscar, in the shape he was in, was able to get Pacquiao to the ropes - Hatton will do so, unquestinably, and that is when he builds his points on the cards. If there is a change in fortunes as I expect, they will probably occur on the ropes.

The big question here is who's power weighs worst - not better - against the other's puncher resistance? I've got Ricky.

Hatton by TKO10.





Froch V Taylor is a bit more speculative. I expect, like most of you, to see Froch getting ********* by Taylor. But it was a one-handed Lacy who caught up to and hurt Taylor last time out. After this, Taylor was a different, more cautious fighter. I think he's gunshy, frankly - I don't think he was intensity. Froch will score with a big shot sometime in the first four and Taylor will go into a shell. Froch isn't as bad as some people think, in my opinion, and he has the right tools for this pursuit. He has okay balance and direct footwork which coupled with an open defence means, yes, he's going to get hit a lot. A weak defence is ALWAYS a negative - but it can force an opponent to take chances he wouldn't normally take bring him OUT of a shell he could probably use his way to pick through a fight. The big question here is, is Froch's punch resistance such that he can repeatedly close the distance without being driven back? I think yes, it is, given that Taylor is going to be cautious with his shots.

A bad start for Froch forces his hand. He becomes aggressive and Taylor becomes more negative. Froch sways the crowd and starts to win rounds. Stops Jermain Taylor late in a bad, fascinating fight.

Froch by TKO 11.




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