Usyk wide UD. He's on a totally different level skill wise, ring IQ and experience. Whyte is a tough guy but extremely limited at what he has to offer. Whyte would have his moments rushing and roughing Usyk up but by Rd 6 Usyk will be too quick, too cute and too active and dominate down the stretch 9-3 type fight.
Without having to make cruiserweight, Usyk will be at his physical peak. He will be bigger, stronger and more fuelled. So imagine Usyk with a bit more power in his punches. If he's hitting Joshua hard enough to earn his respect, continually stinging him with the jab and takes advantage of Joshua's lack of head movement, boxing on the move at a fast pace, making Joshua miss and basically boxing circles around him, then I could see Joshua gassing. Usyk KO. Not saying that's exactly what I would expect to happen, but you can make a case for how Usyk wins.
But Joshua is no where near the same level of fighter as he was in the amateurs.. especially when he fought Dillian Whyte... So you aren't really comparing anything there. Joshua has changed immensely. At one point Dillian was dominating Joshua in amateurs, and then Joshua dominated Dillian in pro's. Things change that much.
im not taking anything away from Usyk skill wise, he's superior. But head movement doesn't protect you against body shots, and someone on the slim side like Usyk will feel those shots and Dillian is adept at landing them at this stage in his career. When you eat body shots of that magnitude from Whyte, you will move less and hurt more (if you haven't already collapsed from liver failure/pain). But I'd be excited to watch it.
Right now id fancy him to school Joshua, but its a big ask to avoid those big shots for 12 rounds and the weight difference will be substantial.
I'm just finding it very difficult to believe Usyk can punch harder than Povetkin.. make me believe man. Help me Because Joshua wasn't hurt from Povetkin (he's own words)
How many times did Povetkin land though? Imagine Usyk with all that speed continually landing on Joshua as he gasses more and more from the abundance of punches he's taking while missing with his own...
Mate.. Povetkin landed... as cleanly as Povetkin COULD land... as cleanly as any boxer could land. Many Many times... I got the punch stats you know (I made a thread). Plus even visually it's obvious how much Povetkin landed lol he broke AJ's nose. Povetkin is a power puncher not a volume puncher too... so it will hurt that much more. Plus he's choice of punches hurt more too (hardly any jabs and mostly hooks and uppercuts)
Yeah Usyk lands a lot typically... but every time he does that he will be in range for AJ's counter punches. And if AJ misses Usyks head (which I doubt) he will catch the body... and that will hurt like hell. AJ is versatile with his shots, he is punch perfect, great technique and angles on his hooks, Jabs, crosses, uppercuts... all in succession. 82 inch reach will help them land more.
I think Usyk would cause Joshua a lot of problems. He's clearly an exceptional talent. I just think AJ would catch him eventually. Then could he deal with the power?
I don't disagree with anything you say. I would have Joshua as a big favourite as well. I'm just making a case for how the heavyweight version of Usyk might win. Joshua big favourite, but not it's not a foregone conclusion IMO.
Originally, I'd be on team Usyk all the way. But after seeing Joshua adapt his game, his stance and his patience in the Povetkin fight, I think Joshua can pull this off in 12 rounds. I'll tell you why.. A. A big height and reach advantage for AJ means he can keep at range and get that jab off to good effect. (Just like in the Povetkin fight) Usyk uses a high guard very frequently, and he'll use that to get close to AJ. By doing that, he will get caught by jabs and combinations on the way in. His offense will be successful, but his defense will not. B. Usyk is a high energy fighter and therefore needs breaks. Joshua can bully Usyk when he needs to recover. When he recovers, he will either take a step back or come forward and clinch. If he takes a step back, Joshua will pounce. If he clinches, he'll be physically bullied and sent to the ropes to be murdered by combinations. C. Usyk doesn't have enough power to make Joshua respect him. Joshua will come forward more confidently if he sees an opportunity because he knows Usyk can't drain his stamina with shots. I expect a late TKO or a close points win for Joshua. Usyk will be caught too much.
Tony Dosh peaked in the Wlad fight and his last 3 fights against 2 very poor opponents and a small old Povetkin clearly show this decline. The first fight against non puddings (eg not puddings such as Parker, Whyte and Takam types) and he is pumped. Two years from now Tony Dosh is today's Toe Haye
Usyk will land more punches vs AJ than Khan did vs Canelo his defense is better than Khan`s also, but yes I feel it could end just like the Povetkin fight, lighter heavyweights can out speed AJ but can`t take his power and he`s good at setting traps like he did with his jab to the body vs Pov.