~ Manny PACQUIAO v. Juan Manuel MARQUEZ ~ ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Thread ~

ANALYSIS OF MARQUEZ vs PACQUIAO II

What do you think each will bring to the table?
Marquez: Technical mastery, great counter punching ability, ability to adjust/change tactics, sense of distance, timing, left jab, hard right hand, superb uppercuts with either hand (and from the inside and outside as well), varied arsenal of punches, defensive awareness, proven heart, will to win, top notch recuperative powers, a good chin (B level), and the knowledge of what Pacquiao brings to the table. Negatives include: a succeptability to the straight left hand early in fights (with Pacquiao I and Jimrex Jaca), increased aggressiveness which leads to him getting hit more than ever, can be hurt and dropped, slight decrease in speed from his featherweight days, has lost a tiny bit of bounce in his step, and age.

Pacquiao: Phenominal speed, physical strength, proven power at the top level, punch output, ferocity, improving versatility/boxing ability from long range, a devestating straight left hand, a hard right hook, phenominal stamina/conditioning, excellent chin, will to win, unmatched fighting spirit, knowledge of Marquez's style, and most importantly, he has a wider array of punches than he did in their first encounter. Negatives include: defensive liabilities, noticable decrease in the effectiveness of his power at 130, tiny decrease in speed as compared to the lower weights, a tendency to go 1-2 crazy, inability to fight off of the backfoot, balance/positioning, and a questionable focus at times (though I don't expect many distractions with a fight of this magnitude)

What do you expect their strategy to be?
Marquez: Marquez wants to employ the same strategy/gameplan he used in the rounds following the 3 knockdowns. He will be aware of the left hand and do his best to take it away by moving his head and trying to catch it. But because Pacquiao has a much improved right hand, he will also be ready for that. When Pacquiao leads, he will sidestep the shots or slip the shots and take advantage of Pacquiao getting himself off balance. Marquez will counter with sharp/quick/precise punches and move laterally while Pacquiao is forced to turn and rethink his attack all over again. As I mentioned before, Pacquiao is still bad off of the backfoot, so I expect Marquez to pick and chose his spots to be aggressive, leading with straight right hands down the pipe and following up with a body/head combination when Pacquiao is in retreat mode. When Pacquiao is forced back, it leaves him virtually docile and ineffective. To make a long story short, Marquez will mix boxing with aggression, with boxing being the main component of the gameplan. If he fights fire with fire, he gets knocked out, and I'm positive he knows this.

Pacquiao: Manny may start quick from the beginning, looking to find the same success he had in the first round of their first fight. But I expect him to do so with greater variety and more intelligence. He will keep his head moving, but also give feints with the right hand to keep Marquez thinking and reacting to what he's doing. Instead of solely using the right jab-left hand combination, I see him using his right hook more early on and giving him more looks with different punches. Shooting the straight left hand to the body would do him a lot of good. I don't think he'll be the crazy typhoon he was in the first right, but instead look to place his punches better. He would be best advised to keep the pressure on Marquez and focus on the body instead of getting into a tactical battle on the outside as he did with Barrera in their last fight because if he does, Marquez will pick him apart. However, fighting on the outside in spots and then relentlessly pressuring could do him good because it will give Marquez more to think about and will make it necessary for Marquez to adjust. Pacquiao will make the jab an important weapon as he advances and will try to apply technical pressure. His footwork is another thing I look at; he shouldn't lunge in and sacrafice his balance, but take small steps forward and remain in position to punch every second of every round. In short, look for Pacquiao to apply pressure in a more cerebral fashion and display his improving skills/punch variety.

How could each win?
Marquez: Marquez can win this fight if he is able to neutralize Pacquiao's straight left, which, in turn, will take away the only real weapon he needs to worry about. If Marquez has the speed and timing he did during the Juarez fight, he can counterpunch Pacquiao and make him pay for lunging in and make him pay for his mistakes. He must keep this fight at the pace he wants it. As I said, Marquez needs to move laterally, pick spots to counter, and use the jab (doubling and tripling it up) every now and then. Picking his spots to be the aggressor is key: he can't do it too much and he can't get into brawls often. But if he leads with the right hand, catches Pacquiao and puts him on the backfoot, he needs to take advantage and attack him.

Pacquiao: Pacquiao can win this fight by pressuring Marquez and presenting more variety and showing more intelligence. He looked very one dimensional in his attack during the first fight, but against Morales and Barrera since then, he is showing an increased boxing IQ. If he takes his time and doesn't rush, stays controlled, stays balanced, gives feints, effectively pressures, and gives different looks, he stands a great chance to win. He has to keep up a very high workrate in order to test the legs and conditioning of the older Marquez, but with Manny, there's never any need to worry about him trowing enough punchs. Pacquiao should work the body more as well as it could obviously do him some real good in the later rounds.

How do you think this fight will play out?
I expect this fight to start out slower than the first with each studying the other's style. Pacquiao will be the aggressor while Marquez is the boxer. In the earliest of rounds, Pacquiao's aggressiveness and pressure will get him the 10-9's, but Marquez will adjust and start to effectively counter Pacquiao. Much like the first fight, I think he mid rounds will go to Marquez who will be the one landing the cleaner shots and getting the attention of the judges with them over Pacquiao's pressure. As the fight progresses, Pacquiao will step on the gas pedal and come at Marquez like an animal with every shot having knockout written on it. He will win some rounds off of this because he'll find Marquez with big straight left hands and right hooks. With that said, I don't envision Pacquiao being able to hit Marquez enough to wear him down enough for a stoppage. Trust assured, there will be some rocky moments during the fight for Marquez. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Pacquiao knocked him down with a shot on the button or had him badly hurt. But all things considered, I feel Marquez will fight his fight for most of the rounds, catching Pacquiao with counters, taking advantage of his balance and positioning, backing Pacquiao up every now and then, and adjusting when need be.

What is your prediction?
Juan Manuel Marquez UD12 Manny Pacquiao
116-112, 116-112, 115-113

 

nice analysis. very possible too.

 

They're very evenly matched, so I wouldn't bet a dime on this, despite my prediction

 

agree! anything very possible.
but i'll stick to my prediction - Pac by KO or UD!
the writer forgot to realized that pac has improved technically
since their last fight obviously underestimates the bull strong power of pac. He VERY capable of Knocking out JMM!

JMM Knocking out PAC? Nah! He can't even ko Juarez!

 

normally I boxer has to watch out the stronger hand, correct?

now, if the other hand is now likewise strong? how do you handle it?

My prediction on JMM's style - Hit run run run run run, hit run run run run.
and hopefully not to be hit. Do you expect JMM to fight toe to toe? Forget it
he doesn't want to end the fight kissing the canvass (again!) if he does that!

 

I know that took some time to thinkout and write, and as a member of this forum I appreciate you taking the time to break it down like that!

I dont have to agree on everything to say that was an exellent breakdown, and an exellent post!:good


The two key things that I disagree with is your assertion that Pac will do himself good by shooting his straight left to the body......

Pac's left hand is the one thing that surely JMM will have his radar on.....
......the left hand to the body is something that Pac can try every now and then.
I cant see Pac working that left hand to JMM's body with any consistency without getting rudely straightened up by a patented Marquez uppercut.
.....when you go to the body like that, you become extremely vulnerable to the uppercut, and in JMM he has one of the best in boxing.

The 2nd disagreement is your assertion that JMM is likely to or can get badly hurt by Pac.....that did'nt even happen in the round where he was knocked down three times. Marquez was quickly up and on steady legs the whole time.....after that round, there was'nt a time in the fight where Pac came close to badly hurting JMM.

Pac is'nt any more likely to badly hurt JMM than JMM is to hurt him is what I'm getting at.......

.....other than those key issues, we aggree on who the winner will be! :good

 

Did you even read his post?

brooklyn broke it down as good as anybody here has, and he considered and brought up the points that you say he neglected!

The man broke it down from the JMM perspective and from the Pac perspective.
He basically covered it all, and then came down with his opinion on how he believes the fight will play out and who will win.

 

Your basis is a valid one, though I dont agree with it!

JMM may have slowed just a tad, but not enough to be a difference maker from what he was able to accomplish against Pac when they first fought.


JMM still does things technically as solid as they come, and the key to me is that he still can fight 3 minutes of every round.

Marquez is still fighting at a high level despite the fact that he has admittedly become more of an attacker to open up eyes and the people can take notice so that he can get and pressure fighters like Pacquiao to have to fight him.

I think it will be you who will be suprised that JMM has'nt lost as much speed and quickness as you thought by watching him fight aggressively.
.....he'll likely be on the backfoot and counterpunching just as fast and quick as he did almost 4 years ago!

 

I guess more than enough has been said who will win on this mega fight. I just hope you will RESPECT the decision of the judges. If you based in on the past wherein the results is not favorable to JMM you have an unblemished record of not agreeing on the results.

why did I SAY this

1)JMM vs CJ- CJ WON. you still believe you were robbed
2) JMM vs PAC I - It was a DRAW. you beleive you were robbed

One of my greatest fear is if pac wins only by UD or more so if it's only an SD. I strongly believe (if I based it on history) you will again say you were ROBBED!

Imagine, you were robbed 3x's! If that happens he will be the all time MOST ROBBED boxer of ALL Time, what do you think?!

 

A bad decision should be discussed if and when it happens.

You're posting recently as if you expect a bad decision against JMM to come his way!

I'm going to sit back and enjoy the fight, expecting a bad decision will surely take from that enjoyment.

This is a high profile fight, and hopefully the judges will be honest and on their best behavior!

 

Nice summation by brooklyn. I wouldnt be surpised at all if he turns out right and JMM does get the win. Indeed, they are evenly matched.

Still rooting for Pac though. I still stick to what I said. Pac's speed, improved movements and being a different type of pressure fighter would eventually overwhelm JMM and would produces a late KO/TKO for Pac.

 

Yup! I AGREE! the bad decisions that you did not like, both did not favor JMM! So far (the two fights I mentioned) if you did not like the decision it's BAD decision! :hey

 

This fight is still 1.5 months to go but I am already feeling the chill. :yikes

 

pacquiao tko8 marquez he has improved since the first fight and we will find that out for sure in march

 

I think Pac will be to much for JMM this time around, UD to Manny.