Most people still don't really understand what was happening in the Itauma Hrgovic fight

Firstly I will say that this fight merits at least one rewatch. I rewatched it twice. When I watched it live I thought Hrgovic lost all rounds, as did Hrgovic himself. When I rewatched it, he won 3 and 5 and 7 was very, very close. I suggest anybody who hasn't to rewatch it and to pay close attention to what both Itauma and Hrgovic are doing.

I've read and listened to a lot of people's opinions on the subject and few had an analysis of the fight I actually found satisfying, Shane Fury is the only one who appeared to somewhat understand what he was watching.

Casuals (blind people) say Hrgovic just stood there and let Itauma tire himself out on his chin and that Itauma defeated himself. **** take.

Hrgovic finally, as he said himself, after 6 years, came in the shape of his life and was actually decently quick on his feet at 107. Vitali Klitschko v2.0, or rather v0.9 as I'd say Vitali is perhaps a bit more quick and defensively responsible. Unfortunately, this Hrgovic's best form of his life came against, as he said, one of a kind boxer and amazing talent, who is so fast that it's almost impossible to look good against him. But if you just look at Hrgovic how he moved against Itauma and how he moved against, say, Dave Allen, Joyce, or Dubois, when he was 110+kg the improvement is clear and I don't think Hrgovic should go above 110kg ever again.

As for what Hrgovic did in the fight, he didn't just stand there, he constantly sought openings and tried to set up punches, basically creating pressure for Itauma that Itauma had to respond to. And Itauma responded well – his unnatural speed and reflexes allowed him to outbox Hrgovic and hit Hrgovic more than Hrgovic hit him. Itauma won rounds. The problem is that using that speed and reflexes requires energy – Hrgovic's pressure constantly drained Itauma's energy. And pay attention to the end of the rounds, whenever Itauma gets tired and tries to rest, Hrgovic pounces. So the genius idea that some people had that Itauma should have just put his foot off the gas a little can only be said by somebody who clearly didn't understand what they were watching. The only reason Itauma managed to keep Hrgovic off him is by putting his foot on the gas. Whenever Itauma slipped the foot off the gas and tried to rest, as in rounds 3 and 5, Hrgovic pressed him. Itauma is used to dicating the tempo, scaring opponents with combinations, and resting when he wants. Hrgovic didn't allow him the resting phase. Then finally when Hrgovic sensed weakness at the end of the 8th, he finished the job in 9th.

And I guarantee you even if Itauma didn't go all out in the 8th and tried to conserve his energy, it would be Hrgovic going all out in the championship rounds 10-12 the same as he did in 9th, and the outcome would be the same. Anybody who thinks Hrgovic would calmly watch Itauma wobble weakly the last 4 rounds instead of smelling blood and going for the kill suffers from severe delusion. Itauma had no path to victory that specific evening. It was a war of attrition, Hrgovic lost the battles but won the war.

Hrgovic was finally more defensively responsible and reasonably light on his feet compared to previous fights, as I said it's just a shame this best version of him came so late and against the fastest most talented HW fighter in the world against whom it's just impossible to look good. It's the first time he had a proper camp with a world class trainer. He took some hard shots from Itauma, but notice how many he also either avoided, or blocked, or at least lessened the impact of by moving or leaning away.

Needless to say speed was on Itauma's side, but Hrgovic showed he's technically a superior boxer and caught Itauma occasionally with some amateur „tricks“, showing Itauma's lack of experience which he usually uses his speed to compensate for.

As for conditioning Hrgovic once again proved he can go into deep rounds and came in excellent shape. The idea that he cannot is based on a single fight, the one with Dubois, where he was sick beforehand and didn't finish camp, I've even seen somebody say Moses should take Hrgovic to late rounds... yeah. No comment. Those who know, know, those who don't, dont.

Casuals only care about flashy speed and KO highlight reels, it takes deeper understanding of boxing to appreciate Hrgovic's more subtle movements and abstract qualities like ring iq, strategy, willpower, etc. So I understand why most people don't get it and underestimated him. Yeah I know that sounds condescending but fundamentally I think it's true. Moses Itauma for casual boxing fans is like a shiny colorful toy for kids.

Yes Itauma was overrated, I don't think anybody would be such a massive favorite against Hrgovic, it was just insane, he'd need to straight up KO Hrgovic in the first half to justify these odds. I favored Hrgovic 60-40 but something like 50-50 IMO would also be reasonable odds, definitely not Hrgovic as a massive underdog. Itauma did prove though that he can not only hang with top 5 guys, but win more rounds against a better version of Hrgovic than Dubois 26 headbutts did against the worst version.

 

Great analysis. I think this is spot on. People saying Itauma just needed to ‘pace himself’ or ‘not try to finish Hrgovic towards the end’ are missing the fact that if Itauma wasn’t operating at 100% at all times then Hrgovic would’ve been much better at winning rounds, could’ve maybe won on points.

This was no Homer Simpson performance from Hrgovic, dude was very smart in there.