PAC vs Cotto Analysis... Where am I wrong?

bachatu · Nov 12, 2009

DatBo215 said: ↑

While I don't completely agree with the thread starter I do understand his statements. Pac fought both Hatton and Hoya at the right time in their careers. It isn't a coincidence that they both retired after their bouts with Pac. (Although it is likely Hatton will go against better judgement and fight again) With that said I think there are things that can be taken from both fights that help build the argument for a Pac win. I do however feel that
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I think it is going to be a great fight and I can't wait. I do however agree with the TS in his prediction...Cotto will wear pac down and stop him in similar fashion to the Judah fight, but the stoppage might come a bit sooner.
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He won't beable to handle true WW power.
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:thumbsup Good way to sum things up.

booradley · Nov 12, 2009

BlueApollo said: ↑

I think his hands are faster than Zab but not Mosley. His reflexes at this point though are definitely quicker than Shane's.

The more I think about it, the more I think Cotto can break Manny's rhythm the way Marquez did, and I still think Manny needs to control the pace to be at his best. But, I'm really curious to see how the weigh-in plays out also. We can throw all this style stuff out the window if Cotto comes in at 145 looking like a corpse.
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The speed issue between Pac, Judah, and Mosely is close, but I think Pac is the hardest to hit flush because of the way he uses his hand and foot speed together with movement.

I did note that everytime Oscar actually opened up and threw the left hook he landed it, and we all know what Cotto can do with a left hook. Cotto working the left hook up and down could be a game changer.

I don't think Cotto will have a problem with the weight. He has weighed in at 146 in recent fights, so 145 really shouldn't be an issue. However, I'm also anxious to see the weigh in.

African Cobra · Nov 12, 2009

Whilst I agree with some aspects of the analysis and not with other aspects it is a considered piece. I will not go point by point on the analysis provided in this thread.

I like both fighters very much who both deserve credit and lots of it for their careers. The saddest aspect if you like is that one of them will lose on Saturday.

In my opinion Miguel Cotto will win this fight and stop Pacman. Cotto has a lot of very good experience against dangerous southpaws and different styles. In all that has been said by lots of people picking Pacman they forget fundamentally that the last time Pacman was in a true 50:50 fight against the closest person to Cotto stylistically he really struggled and that was Juan Manuel Marquez. For all Pacman's speed, improvements, viciousness in punching etc Cotto's skills are fundamentally better. If Freddie Roach really thinks Pacman can stop Cotto in round 1 then the man is serioyusly deluded and his illness is probably at the point of no return. Remember I was one of those who picked Pacman to doa n umber on Hatton as stylewise I knew it was a suicidal mission as I identified that stylewise Hatton does not really have a clue with southpaws not to talk a of a fast one who throws vicious punches from all angles. In this fight Cotto will get to Pacman easier than anticipated picking him apart as he comes in. This will force Pacman back into his true element which is to be a fighter and he will have to trade even early. The difference is that unlike Marquez fight Pacman will get laid out. Cotto by knockout.

retriever · Nov 16, 2009

gandul said: ↑

ok guys, i'm going to lay out how i analize this fight in order to reach my conclusion. However, seen that most of you are picking pac to win, i just want to know, were am i wrong? What am i not seeing?

what's deceiving

to me, there are couple of things that are completely deceiving regarding the most recent arguments from both sides.

1. We are all hype for pac because of his recent wins (and the way he did it) against odlh and hatton.

A) oscar de la hoya = from this two fights, the one to me that's easier to analyze is the odlh fight. That fight, obviously oscar wasn't the same guy that actually fought pbf a year before. If the pbf version of oscar showed up against pac the fight would have been a lot more competitive than what it actually turned out to be. This is not against pac, he did what he had to do but all things being equal oscar was drained and he wasn't kd at any point in the fight, which tells me that although pac has great power it's not as destructive at 145 as perhaps in the lower weights.

B) ricky hatton = in this fight, pac looked undistructible. I mean, hatton had a great trainer and what i belive a decent fight plan that he obviously didn't execute during that fight. But we all knew that hatton doesn't have the proper movement (specially defensive) in order to come forward and not get hit. Pac looked awsome against a fighter who comes forward to brawl all the time. Awsome win in my book. But nontheless the majority in esb thinks that hatton is overated as far as i've seen.

Both fighters barely gave pac hard work and the outcome of this two fights more than anything gave pac a huge confidence (in which could be dangerous if he doesn't know how to control it) and more hype.

However, taking away this two fights if we would have thought of pac coming from 135 to fight cotto at 145 anybody would have scream that we were dilusional but in all honesty, i believe that pac has basically fought in the last 2 fights what i call "dream fights" against opposition who are not in 100% their prime but have big names.

miguel cotto

another thing that i consider deceiving is the notion from most of you that cotto is damage goods because of the margo fight. Let's be all honest here in regards to that. In the margo fight cotto basically fought to exhaustion in that fight, however, he was never knocked out on his back, therefore we can all be assure that cotto has a chin. He does tend to cut but he definately has a chin.

From his two fights after that brutal one the one that we can really analyze is the clottey fight. We all know that clottey had some of the ingredients that margo had in his fight game. They both come forward, clottey definately has better defense but margo and clottey had similarities in their game, meaning, they both are pressure fighters, iron chined, great stamina (although clottey seemed to get a little tired at the end but indeed they both got great stamina). In that fight, miguel showed a great heart. We definately didn't see the old cotto necesarily but was it because of the bad cut or because he "doesn't have it"??. To me that's still in the air to be quite honest, however, it was a great win against a hard as nails fighter, therefore his confidence is up. Not necesarily as it was when he was unbeaten but is definately up.

When it all comes down, we know that pac will be the faster guy although it might not be for much, the truth is that cotto has an underated speed and he showed it against ssm and zab. Pac has definately power but at 145:huh i don't know... He didn't hurt a drained oscar and cotto can take a punch so that question is in the air at the moment. To me pac hasn't been hit yet flush at 140 or 145. Both hatton and oscar didn't have the tools to do it. I honestly see that cotto has the proper tools and pedigree to overcome what pac brings yet pac hasn't really test what a true ww brings with a more than average power that is properly schooled and is very dynamic in his arsenal while pac has basically a one way of fighting. I mean, we all think that pac is coming with the in and out version as what he did against odlh but what about if that doesn't work? Does he has the proper chin to sustain the power of a true ww in his prime going to his head and body and be able to trade? Can he fight on the back foot?

I only see pac being able to do better with plan a but cotto has the proper tools to change in mid fight, is pac able to implement a plan b? I'm basically going for the naturally bigger / well schooled / decent chin cotto and more now that he is definately more focused and had a longer training camp and i expect his stamina and work rate to be higher.

Cotto wins in any way...
Where am i wrong? If you can't come up with decent proof or argument please do a favor to yourself and stfu and gtfo
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everything

chimba · Nov 16, 2009

Gandul you are wrong but you can redeem yourself.

Stop breathing

madkillaz692000 · Nov 16, 2009

wow.

Blue_Ray · Nov 16, 2009

He seemed to be wise guy though but he overanalyzed the fight.

He got it all wrong.

Tszyu · Nov 16, 2009

He has closed his account

watsinango · Nov 16, 2009

I heard some members asking the Mods to delist their name from ESB.

Blue_Ray · Nov 16, 2009

DatBo215 said: ↑

While I don't completely agree with the thread starter I do understand his statements. Pac fought both Hatton and Hoya
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It isn't a coincidence that they both retired after their bouts with Pac. (Although it is likely Hatton will go against better judgement and fight again) With that said I think there are things that can be taken from both fights that help build the argument for a Pac win. I do however feel that Pac's recent success has given many people an unrealistic view of his skill set at the higher weight classes while Cotto's recent's fights have done the same in a negative fashion. These fights are playing in peoples minds much like the last 30sec in a round. Often times judges remember the last 30 seconds more than the first 2 1/2 minutes.

I think it is going to be a great fight and I can't wait. I do however agree with the TS in his prediction...Cotto will wear pac down and stop him in similar fashion to the Judah fight, but the stoppage might come a bit sooner. Pac was there to be hit when Hoya actually threw punches. He won't beable to handle true WW power.
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At the right time? Then we should give big credit to Pac then. What about Cotto? What's your excuse now?

Totomabs · Nov 16, 2009

retriever said: ↑

everything
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:rofl.. i guess a one word answer is enough for a wise guy..:rofl

charlievint · Nov 17, 2009

DatBo215 said: ↑

While I don't completely agree with the thread starter I do understand his statements. Pac fought both Hatton and Hoya at the right time in their careers. It isn't a coincidence that they both retired after their bouts with Pac. (Although it is likely Hatton will go against better judgement and fight again) With that said I think there are things that can be taken from both fights that help build the argument for a Pac win. I do however feel that Pac's recent success has given many people an unrealistic view of his skill set at the higher weight classes while Cotto's recent's fights have done the same in a negative fashion. These fights are playing in peoples minds much like the last 30sec in a round. Often times judges remember the last 30 seconds more than the first 2 1/2 minutes.

I think it is going to be a great fight and I can't wait. I do however agree with the TS in his prediction...Cotto will wear pac down and stop him in similar fashion to the Judah fight, but the stoppage might come a bit sooner. Pac was there to be hit when Hoya actually threw punches. He won't beable to handle true WW power.
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Logical unfortunately PAC defies logic 90% of the time.

maryann · Nov 17, 2009

The result of very confident bold predictions. Don't worry even boxing experts usually eat their crows when it comes to pac.

PH|LLA · May 26, 2010

del

PH|LLA · May 26, 2010

threethirteen said: ↑

Everything you raise is accurate. I think you've got to look at what the fighters can do: we've never seen Pac go to plan B, because he doesn't have a plan B. He's usually not needed one, but he's looked sloppy against two fighters who came at him with gameplans to neutralise his speed and power (Marquez and Morales).

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I'm looking at the things I can measure: Manny's speed and straight shots, Cotto's versatility and under-rated jab, Manny's footwork and angles, Cotto's timing and punch placement...

I'm seeing a Cotto win, but this is hard to pick. It's the last four rounds that this fight hinges on for me.
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this is a good one.

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