Pavlik beats Taylor within five.

Pavlik TKOs Taylor in 6th round. (rematch)

 

Pavlik will win but i think it will go longer than 5, my feeling is that if it goes the distance KP will be robbed to set up a 3rd match, Pavlik will have to stop him (which i think he will) or at least score a couple of knockdows to guarantee a points win..

 

I only see 3 possible scenarios for the rematch. I've laid them out before, but oh well, here we go again.

1) Taylor may have a badly battered psyche that causes him to come in cautious and tenative. That is absolutely the WRONG way to fight Kelly Pavlik. Rather like trying to swim slow because there are sharks in the water! If JT comes in that way, Pavlik blows him out in under 3 rounds.

2) This is the one I think most likely. Taylor thinks Pavlik just got lucky, and still underestimates him. He comes in with both guns blazing, and tries to recreate round two of the first fight. This time he is facing a bigger, stronger Pavlik who keeps his wits about him, so he doesn't act like a fool when he gets hit. Pavlik won't drop his guard and stick his chin out a second time, and JT looses a war of attrition against Pavlik every time out. Pavlik KO5 Taylor.

3) This is the one I'm actually hoping for, but I do not have much faith in it happening. JT keeps his left hand up, and moves in and out quick using lots of lateral movement. He throws 2, 3, and 4 punches, and when he is done punching, he either ties Pavlik up, or gets the hell away from him. This would cause Kelly problems because JT would spend less time in Kelly's effective punching range, and the movement would lower Kelly's normally outstanding connect rate down to something more civilized. Under this scenario we would see a very good fight, but Kelly would still catch him enough times to gradually dimantle Taylor. Pavlik TKO 10 or 11 Taylor. And remember, if JT sees the opening bell for the 10th round, he will have done something no other fighter has done. The few guys who did make the distance against "The Ghost" fought him in fights scheduled for 8 rounds or less.

Boo

 

Palvic by KO on the 9th round or UD if Taylor comes in really prepared

 

No gifts this time. Taylor gets knocked out.

 

Picking Pavlik to KO Taylor again.

The only two scenarios I can see where Taylor wins:

1) Comes out agressive intent on stopping Pavlik in the first 1/2 of the fight. In this case Taylor believes his stamina will betray him again so he's got to get the job done in the 1st 1/2.

2) Boxes and pot shots his way to a decision. In this case his move up in weight improves his stamina and he can go 12 good rounds.

I do not think either case is likely but it wil be interesting to see how the extra weight effects both fighters.

 

I had Pavlik to beat Taylor first time round simply on workrate. I thought he would win a close fought UD. This time around I'm picking Talyor to box his way to a UD in a fight not as exciting as the first.

 

It makes sense to think so. Though not always the case, many fighters are never the same after a suffering a devastating KO. It probably hurts them more mentally than physically but in either case, they are not the same. Pavlik has a bigger advantage in the second fight and it is an advantage he doesn't even need based uopn the results of the first fight.