Incorrect; HBO gave Pavlik a list of 4 lesser fighters they would air. KP threw the list away and said "get me Williams." PW and his team came up with tons of totally unreasonable demands, and KP just kept saying "make the fight." However, HBO did want this fight quite badly AFTER Pavlik said he wanted it. Make no mistake, Kelly Pavlik was the driving force behind this getting made.
Paul Williams is only effective when he has the "freak show" act up and running in the lower weight classes and even then he was outlcassed by the highly underrated Quintana, although he demolished "El Indio" in act 2. Paul's not a real middleweight and lacks the body for that division unless he seriously hits the weights. Pavlik will destroy him.
Pavlik's got a good chance in this fight. Williams is more of the underdog. Pavlik will land his best shots against Williams and we'll see what Williams can do at 160 with this fight.