At various times I have been both a critic and a proponent of Jack Leow. I'll be among the first to admit that he seems to make a few mistakes at times. However, the perpetual know it all attitude on ESB often grows quite monotonous, so let me ask you one quick question: How many of your fighters became just the 5th man in history to win the middleweight championship while still undefeated by knocking out the undefeated, undisputed middleweight champion of the world? I'm only asking because unless you are a more accomplished, more experienced trainer than Jack Leow, you are not qualified to make the statement above.
You do not have to be an experienced trainer to see that Jack Loew is not helping Kelly, hurting him actually. In Pavlik's last fight, he could not even see in the last 3 rounds, he even said this to Loew, and Loew's advice was double the jab. He should have stopped the fight. Nevertheless he is not going to even have a remote chance against Bute or Dawson unless he becomes much more undpredicatable with his punches.
At this stage in his career I don't think a big stylistic overhaul would do much for him. Like you said, though, if he fights Bute he's going to get beaten pillar to post. That's a terrible match for him.
Leow did the right thing by pushing Kelly to continue. At first I did not think so, but now I do. Quitting would have screwed Pavlik up permanently. He is a very proud fighter, and like most fighters he has a pretty big ego. Living with quitting in a world title fight would have been nearly impossible for him. He'd never been cut up before. Now he has that experience behind him. In the Martinez fight Pav did not do what Jack told him to for the majority of the fight! Jack told him to jab to the chest and work the body. Leow also repeatedly told KP to throw the 3-2. Kelly spent almost the entire fight head hunting, and he lost. In the Hopkins fight the only area where Pavlik actually out performed Hopkins was in the jab department. Leow was freaking screaming at KP to double up on his jab. Kelly kept right on throwing singles, and BHop kept right on blasting him in the face with right hand counters. Pav lost. In the Zertuche fight Kelly ignored Leow for the first 3 rounds, and the fight looked quite competetive. After that he started Listening, and it turned into a one sided beating rather quickly. In the Espino fight Pavlik did not listen to a ****ing thing Leow told him. As a result he ended up in a 5 round slug fest with a guy who should have been outta there in 2-3 fairly easy rounds. Against Zuniga, McKart, Miranda, Taylor, Rubio, and others KP tried to do exactly what Leow told him to, and we saw the results. This isn't rocket science.
Things, like quitting, are easier to do the second time. Not my call. I wasn't in the ring getting hit. Just an observation.