Yeah I can't see kelly getting stopped. He's got a great beard for me. My money is on Pavlik. Something was clearly very wrong in the Hopkins fight. I don't think it was all Hopkins. They said Kelly was ill and I believe them. I think Kelly will bounce back in style and I think he may stop him late.
I'm still indecisive and mulling over this fight. Martinez was my pick when this was announced, but analysing it a little i don't know wether he can play keep away for the full 12 rounds. Martinez game is predicated on athleticism but he's not a Roy jones or Calzaghe to carry that style off. Pavlik has a southpaw's nightmere in that right hand although he doesn't throw it as a lead he has a good enough set up to catch Sergio with it who gets hit far too much. I could see Martinez looking stella in the first half of the fight, dominating and outboxing Mr Staph, but then gassing with the pressure of Pavlik plus his own movement. People need to throw away the Hopkins fight. Martinez can't do what Hopkins does. Bernard tied Kelly up, took away his 1 and automatically the 2. He's physically very strong on the inside, bullying Pavlik then resetting the crafty attack. Martinez can't do that. Pavlik can shrink the ring by walking Martinez down. However, pavlik is so wide open for Martinez and just as we have to throw Hopkins/Pavlik fight outta the window, we have to do the same with Martinez vs Wiilliams. People make to much outta him tiring in that fight, yes he was gassing, but yet he was still working Paul in the later rounds! Williams threw 1000 punches from all kinda angles with speed and Sergio was still slipping most of it. Pavlik might as well put his 1-2 in a brown package with a stamp on it. Pavlik stalks but he doesn't throw from as many angles. I think i've got Martinez with fast and clean counters clowning Mr 1 2, its just a matter of how long he can keep it up. What gets forgotten as well is that Martinez took that Williams fight on short notice and had to come up in weight which had to factor in to his energy levels. This time he has a full camp and he aint fighting an octopus that throws punches from behind his back. Hes fighting a relatively slow, predictable, flat footed 1-2 puncher. This is so close to call imo. I need to analyse it a bit more to commit to one side.
Just shows you how stupid Sky are for showing Berto-Quintana but deciding not to show Pavlik-Martinez. They always get on these bandwagons and never know when to get off them. They did the same with Jermaine Taylor when he was stinking out the joint with the likes of Ouma. As for this fight, I'm genuinely torn. I can't see Pavlik outpointing Martinez so if he can keep out of harm's way, Martinez should take this. Pavlik might be more powerful than Williams but he also doesn't possess his ability to throw punches on the fly like Williams and with the same frequency. It's tricky one though because Pavlik's metronomic text-book style might trouble Martinez more than I think and he could struggle to get on the inside. If Martinez can get close then he can do it.
He certainly doesn't have the handspeed of Williams but the thing with Williams is he doesn't use distance. He walks a guy down and throws all those chopping arm punches. Pavlik actually uses leverage, his punches are longer, he's a better timer of punches. He doesn't need to be as close as Williams who negates his own height and reach. It's a different set of problems. Pavlik is more about using a long jab to push his man back, Williams can't do that. Williams had to come into Martinez's punching zone and trade. Sure Martinez is going to be circling initially but Pavlik can compete with his long jab early on. And Martinez sure will get tired doing all that moving.
Yeah, true. It's interesting how you can slowly work out fights if you just think about things a bit. As you said, Williams walks people down and fights a bit like Corrales in terms of not using his height or reach, so he maybe made Martinez more impressive than he really is. It would have been different if Williams tried to keep distance but he didn't. So the difference is Pavlik will be trying to keep distance, and he should be able to - being the bigger man and having good power. I'm starting to go with a late Pavlik stoppage now, with Martinez getting pretty banged up in an attempt to swarm Pavlik.
I don't think Pavlik will get stopped anyway, if he could take a beating like he did in the Hopkins fight than he should be fine. I think Pavlik takes this one, it'll be a long night for Martinez. He might have some success early on, I could see the fight being even after 6 rounds. But I'd say in the second half of the fight I'd say it will be mostly Kelly. I like Williams, but I think he's more flawed as a fighter than Pavlik is, we just focus on Pavlik's more because of the Hopkins fight. I think he'll handle Martinez better.