The triangulation of common opponents does not necessarily lead to solid analysis, but in this case we have two common opponents for a collective total of 7 fights and 69 rounds of boxing. Wright SD12 McKart Wright UD12 McKart Wright DQ8 McKart Wright draw Taylor Pavlik KO6 McKart Pavlik KO7 Taylor Pavlik UD12 Taylor One could rightly argue that McKart was past his best when Pavlik fought him, but so is Winky. Moreover, if McKart is shot, than Marquez must be shot too since McKart held him to a draw in his last outing. Winky is not bringing anything stylewise that Pavlik can't handle. The only real question is this: Can Winky adapt to fighting off the back foot. If he won't back up, Pav stops him early. If he fights off the back foot, he has to do it well enough to win 7 rounds while avoiding Pavlik's right hand, and keeping that jackhammer of a jab from splitting the guard so he doesn't get one-two-ed into a heap in the corner.
To be fair, the McKart comparison means little in this case. Winky fought McKart when he was in his prime. Pavlik fought McKart four years later, and the match was somewhat competetive. I realize you mentioned this in your post.
So did time pass by in McKart's world, but stand still for Winky? And which part of McKart/Pavlik was competetive? The part where Bronco was on his hands and knees struggling to breathe, or the part where the ref commanded Bronco to step forward but Bronco stumbled sideways?
I'm hoping this will happen, it presents a great test for Kelly Pavlik to fight someone as experienced and tactical as Winky. And really who else is there? No one at 160 besides Winky and Abraham present any interest, maybe Sturm but obviously Sturm is content being a huge disappointment.
Remember the line from "The Unforgiven?" "Deserve's got nuthin' ta do with it." Top Rank and Team Pavlik called Winky out numerous times when Pav was on his way up, but Winky ignored them. Ever since Kelly beat JT, Winky has been talkin' smack.
I agree also but I'm only 70% sure. Winky isn't stupid. He won't just let Pavlik hit him flush. He may "be right there all night" as he doesn't dance around alot but he will use good upper body movement and catch alot of punches on his gloves. But he has been out of the ring a while now and could probably use a tune up first.
I hope this fight happens so Winky can get his ass kicked. I was a big fan a while back, but ever since he started acting like some big boxing star I can't stand him. He turned down a Taylor rematch, Kessler, and Abraham like they were nobodies and HBO approved the fights. I know he has a great resume and hall of fame career but **** WINKY. He actually doesn't deserve this fight...he's inactive, and coming off a loss... but if I get to see him get knocked out, I don't mind. Pavlik KO...and hopefully he sends him into retirement.
Which is fine since the aggressor usually gets the points on the card. If Pavlik unloads and Winky is there all night to pick them off with the gloves and not fire back, Pavlik would win on points.