After the Lee fight, those were my instincts as well, but I have to review more footage to be sure of Sergio as my pick...
I agree...if Sergio can force Junior to think and second guess himself, he's got him. Junior CAN NOT let Sergio get off first and fight at his pace...
Me too...I've picked Junior thenwhole way simply because I don't think Martinez will be able to keep him at the favorable distance. I also think Sergio's emotionsnand pride could hurt him in this instance. If he stays cool, avoids exchanges, and boxes he wins easily...I just don't think he will.
Chavez showed tremendous improvements against Lee but Lee surely helped by standing right in front of him squared exposing his lean body to the monster body attack. I think that Sergio will try to turn him around rather than hold. He will lend big lefts and he should do some damage by the mid rounds (hurt or cut Sergio) in order to get his respect. If he can not do this I guess it will be Jr time later on in the fight. Close or a 8-4 type fight for Sergio goes to Junior.
martinez will put on a boxing clinic. chavez will look amateurish and will tire chasing and winging at martinez, who will slowly and brutally stop jr anywhere from 9-11.
Martinez should imply his stick and move strat that he is alread good at doing. Chavez doesn't have good footwork or defense. All chin and size tomorrow. Let see if it holds.
I think you'll see Martinez move around more. One of Jr's big strengths is the body attack . Typically when a come-forward fighter is up against someone mobile it becomes difficult to launch a consistent body attack throughout the fight and they tend to become headhunters(examples: Foreman vs Cotto, Froch vs Dirrell, Pavlik vs. Martinez, etc). Martinez is a pretty good counterpuncher so I think the other benefit would being able to walk Jr into leads and counters when he moves around.
because Martinez punches hard enough and from enough different angles to keep Chavez honest from just rushing in
He's going to need to gain Chavez's respect there at some point, and I think he can do this, not necessarily through brute strength, but by using awkward angles to catch Chavez with shots he doesn't see coming. I expect Chavez to have his best moments from rounds 5-8, with 7 and 8 being his peak, before Sergio regains command in the 9th and wears Chavez down. I think this will be the fight where Jr. will feel the full impact of his constant weight fluctuation.
Good thread... Pure strategy prediction and analyzing fight. I'll add later so we can bump this after.
i think as soon as Sergio realises hes in the corner hes gonna throw a haymaker then just spin off and go back to the middle of the ring
Sergio is gonna bust up Chavez's face real bad. His corner is gonna pull the plug by round 10. This fight can be so easy for Sergio. in out and turn. rinse, repeat.
Come on guys, as if Martinez can be on his toes the entire fight, round after round. Chavez is not some lesser boxer who needs to brawl and pressure the better boxer to have a chance, Chavez is a pressure fighter by trade. Chavez has become a really good pressure fighter, it's what he does, and does best. Chavez is prepared to pressure 12 rounds, but can old man Martinez keep up with the pace for the entire night?