I disagree with that analysis. In their last fight Penn never really hurt GSP standing. GSP throws, what I think, are crisper straighter punches and I think he can out kickbox BJ, even if he can't KO him.
No BJ is better standup..He is very elusive. Look at the fight with Sherk..Two years ago when Sherks boxing wasnt even at a level it is now..He forced GSP to take him down. BJs got heavy hands man..he constantly wobbles opponents and his boxing is better than GSPs maybe not his kicks. But hes got better knees as well and put better combinations. What happened in the first fight is that BJ negated GSPs somewhat fancy moves by being a technical brawler.. Watch the first couple of minutes of that fight before BJ gassed.. He was sharper in the exchanges..even before the so called eyepoke..which watched slowmotion a thousand times was actually a punch in teh eye
Maybe it was a punch and maybe it was a poke, but let's not pretend that BJ's gas tank was suddenly totally empty in the second round. GSP has showcased really remarkable striking just last night against Fitch. GSP is the longer fighter with a better jab, if not better boxing. He throws good leg kicks and fakes the leg kicks well for superman punches. Also, I am of the opinion that he hits harder than Penn. At best I'd say it was 50/50 and I think you are slouching on GSPs standup ability. He is competitive with the very best standup guys at 170. I don't put that much weight on Penn's ability to outbox Sean Sherk, after all, it's Sean Sherk. Either way, GSP uses his striking to setup spectacular takedowns, either from the clinch or the shot, and it does it's job very very well. I just re-watched the first part of round 1 in their first fight and went over it pausing liberally. Here is the landed blows that I saw. GSP 2 jabs 2 leg kicks 2 straight rights 1 checked leg kick Penn 2 left hooks 3 jabs After that Penn clearly won, but he wasn't dominating before the eye incident, whether it was a poke or not doesn't really matter to me. It isn't likely to happen again.
But I also think there's a psychological aspect to it. GSP was cut badly when last standing up with BJ and have since then been KO'd by Serra, so I think he will look to take it to the ground and tire BJ in clinches. This tactic will not make it exciting, but might very well give him a points victory over 5 rounds. If he gets more adventourus, well you just don't know, do you... He showed against Serra and even against Fitch that his chin isn't granite. Fitch also gave him a cut that could have spelled trouble if it had come sooner and/or Fitch had been better at utilising it. I don't think BJ would have been KO'd by Serra and cut (and even rocked on occassions) by Fitch, if he had been standing up with them.