I tried to let everyone know not to bet on Cotto.....even though it seems to be the locical choice. I feel Marg is going to surprise everyone this saturday!
Cotto is not the underdog. I simply pointed out that Teddy usually picks the underdog, which is why he's wrong so often.
I'm pretty sure Cintron was the favorite to win in the first fight. Waldo might be the favorite but Atlas insists that any man who touches his chin can knock him out. Based on the loss to Sanders. He's one of those guys who looks at a situation and thinks if it happened once it'll happen again. Granted to some degree it does, but not in the way he sees it. He thinks it'll happen almost always, which isn't the case. It takes a certain combination of attributes to get that far, and that is something Atlas doesn't recognize. Similarily, it took a big jr.middle and a huge welterweight to beat Margarito, barely mind you. Cotto doesn't have the size of Margarito's past conquerors. And that will be more significant than anyone here realizes. Even Atlas.
Lets not also forget that the majority of Tonys losses were at the hands of southpaws. I expect Cotto to try and see if he has any luck fighting southpaw he is a born lefty and has shown to have the ability to box from that side as well. but your Dead on about the size of the men who have been able to beat Tony, and those guys did NOT have an easy time to get that win.
I am not sold on the idea of him struggling with southpaws. I think he will do fine against a smaller southpaw. The problem is all about size. A bigger man can absorb those body punches and muscle Tony around the ring. We all know what happens when a brawler steps up in weight where guys are bigger than he is. He usually loses. Even though he held his own with Santos, I feel Margarito could not go any higher than 154. Even at 154 I see him having some problems with guys who are simply bigger than he is. Take into account all of Margarito's losses have come at times where he fought stronger opponents. Dixon, Jones were both men fighting a boy in Margarito. Both also on the upswing in their careers. Santos outweighed Tony by about 10lbs going into that fight. And not flab either he was sculpted. Williams is really a middleweight disguised as a welter. All the losses add up to one important point - bigger men absorb more damage than smaller men, on average.
This is bad. For sure the MAIN factor affecting this fight was who Teddy Atlas picked. I give Cotto 1% chance.