If the fight in Germany with refs favourable to Wlad, then no. If the fight in neutral territory with a decent ref, Usyk has a 55/45 chance. Wlad is going to be a tough style for Usyk to solve. For starters, Wlad had a lot of experience vs southpaws. Sanders was the only southpaw Wlad could never handle and Sanders was just a bigger hitter than Usyk. Usyk is very open to the right hand. He has a great chin but his stance naturally puts him in a vulnerable spot to the right hand. In order to slip a right hand, you need to slip your head to the right. Now try something simple: - Get in a southpaw stance with your right leg in front of your left leg. Now try and slip your head to your right. You will notice that there is very little room to slip to your right and that even when you slip, you are in punching range. - Get in a orthodox stance with your left leg in front of your right leg. Slip your head to your right. You will notice that not only can you slip your head much further, you can also slip your head backwards and to the right at the same time, thus taking the sting out of the right hand. Usyk has always had a difficult time with guys with strong right hands, whether its Beterbiev in the amateurs or Breidis in the pros. He managed to overcome them but it was very hard. At heavyweight, he managed to beat Joshua and Dubois (who have excellent right hands) because he managed to hurt them with his left. Thus, he made them reluctant to consistently throw their right hand out of concern for the incoming left counter. Dubois and Joshua have average chins. Breidis has an excellent chin so he could not be dissuaded by the left hand counter. Breidis landed that right hand almost at will since Usyk is open to it despite his skill and defensive tactics. The question is: can Usyk discourage Wlad from throwing the right hand consistently? Wlad had an average chin and Usyk will need to land some big left hands early to discourage Wlad. Wlad also had a monstorous left hook that Usyk will have to watch out for. Joshua staggered Usyk with a big left hook in round 12 of their second fight but it was too late and Joshua did not throw enough left hooks anyway. I think Usyk can land some big lefts early and stagger Wlad and make him reluctant to consistently throw the right hand. Wlad will be able to land some big shots anyway and Usyk will need to absorb some big shots but i think he can outwork and outbox Wlad. If Usyk does not land something serious early to make Wlad reluctant to commit to his right, Usyk will be in serious trouble as i don't think his defense will hold up vs the nuclear right hand if thrown over and over again.
Usyk finds ways to win against guys who have him outgunned. WladKlit always found ways to lose against guys who should not be in his league. Never mind and style analysis, I'll take the winner.
Rumour has it that Usyk gave Wlad all sorts of hassles in sparring. That was an older Wlad though. What makes me lean a little towards Wlad is the clash of footwork. Usyk weaves from side to side, which makes it very hard for guys that try to fight him head on. Wlad theoretically should be ideal for Usyk, because he fights in straight lines ... except for that Wlad had very light feet himself and used his feet not to create angles but to create distance. Usyk has the fundamental problem of everybody facing Wlad: at long range Wlad's jab is longer and better, so you have to close the distance. Closing the distance means going forward, where lateral movement is not so useful. In other words, Wlad makes guys play his game. Usyk trying to rush in is vulnerable to getting caught with something - and this is just what Fury did to him. Now the traffic is not all one way ... Usyk is just flat out faster than Wlad and much more tricky with head movement and body sway. He can punch without committing himself and then vanish. I think I favour Wlad a little but with no great confidence.
Wlad does have the tools to beat Usyk, measures range well with the lead hand and throws the straight right well to the head and body, but Usyk is just so good that I might have to pick him anyway. Wlad didn’t necessarily open up as much when he was in his prime as compared to earlier Wlad, but he might be smart to mix in some left hooks to the body after the straight right here how we saw him do earlier on in his career, as he would have as may opportunities to hold against a southpaw with good feet who can actually beat him from range.
Voted for a stoppage on mental and physical exhaustion. Usyk will drown him , over work him and have him mentally and physically shattered. Usyk is also prepared for war and Wlad isn't. That is also the big deciding factor. Boxing is mental and Wlads mental fortitude doesn't come close.
I like Wlad here. I think people think AJ is the same as Wlad. Roughly the same height, same weight, same reach, same fighting style, etc. Wlad has been fighting for a lot longer than AJ (amateurs & pros). Wlad can control a fight much better than AJ. He uses his jab more and is a better mover. You have to be a big, fast, strong guy with a hell of a chin to beat Wlad. Even though it was only Usyk's 2nd fight at HW he was being bullied a little by Chisora. Wlad would take advantage of that.
I think Usyk chins Wlad at some point, if Wlad tries muscling Usyk around and containing him in the clinch I think he will be sorely disappointed. I think Usyk's infighting when Wlad tries containing him will be a huge factor here like it was against Fury.