Ok, here are my thoughts about this. During the last couple years I always advocated that Toney should chase the WBA belt instead of one of the Klitschkos. One reason is because I believed Toney has enough left to beat Valuev, and probably also Chagaev, if he's in shape and motivated. I still believe that, but since he won't get a shot at the WBA belt anyways, it doesn't really matter either. The other reason was because, at this point, I do not think that Toney has a realistic chance to beat either Klitschko. Not even an in shape Toney. We're not 2003 anymore. I'm convinced that an in shape, motivated, no huff n' puffing James Toney would still give both Klitschkos a tough fight, due to his great defensive skills, awkward style and granite chin. At least a tougher fight than Chagaev, Rahman, Peter or Gomez gave them. A fight boxing fans would love to see. But I don't think that even then James had got enough left to really beat the Klits. I also believe that if Toney showed up overweight and not properly prepared again, he'd get stopped by either Klitschko, and I wouldn't like to see that. At the end of the day, truth is, Toney doesn't deserve a title-shot. His fight with Oquendo was disappointing, even if it wasn't a gift decision as some here claim. Fights that involve Oquendo tend to be ****, ask Byrd or a bunch of other fighters about it. HOWEVER, which HW does deserve a title-shot these days? Does Arreola deserve one? Does Haye deserve one? I do not think so. In my opinion, only Povetkin and Chambers really deserve a title-shot at HW at this point. They'll get theirs, sooner or later, against Wlad. I would have loved to see Toney face either Arreola or Haye, with the winner really deserving their shot at a Klitschko. I also believe that Toney has a good chance at beating both these guys, since credible reports state that Toney is in fighting shape for once (the rumours proved true). I know this won't come off now, Goossen didn't want to risk his young gun Arreola against James, and this strategy paid off since Arreola will get his shot anyways now, deserving or undeserving. As for Haye, to me it seems more and more likely that he just wants to take no risks whatsoever. If HBO would push for a title-fight for Toney, I guess he would get one without much trouble. Toney is promoted by Goosen again and he's still ranked with most of the major sanctioning bodies. Public demand seems to have lowered for Toney in the US, which is understandable after his last, disappointing performances. Unfortunately, he's unknown to the casual public in Europe, since he never fought there (with 1 exception), only hardcore boxing fans even know who he is. It has also been said that fighting Toney is a no win situation for the Klitschkos, since he could make them look bad, and even if he didn't, they'd still get blamed for facing an old fat shot MW. So it all looks dark for James Toney now, but still he's one of the last two ATGs left in the game (the other one being Holyfield - I know it's sad), and despite all his wrong decisions and mistakes that he did in the past, he had a great career and he's never been stopped in over 600 pro rounds, facing a who is who in every division. And that's why he deserves to go out with a bang, win or lose. One last title-shot, and since it's impossible to get a shot at the WBA belt, he'll have to face one of the Klitschkos. He's in shape now, and he's got to fight himself into a mandatory position again. Beat guys like old Maskaev and Kevin Johnson - if he can't do that anymore he should retire anyways. Problem is, time is running out, Toney turns 41 in less than a month and I don't think he'll manage to stay in fighting shape over a longer period of time anymore. That's why it's so important that he should get a fight as soon as possible.
Well, it seems that Arreola will face Vitali on 26 September 2009 which confirms what we had been discussing here that Arreola is the first choice of opponent for Vitali. I predict Vitali by KO, Arreola is too green. HBO wanted to rush this young fighter and the obvious will follow in September. HBO just thinks short term money these days. It was all clear to us that James only had a shot at the fight if Arreola would have refused it which does not seem to be the case anymore. As for James Toney, you did sum up the situation and it all looks dark like as you said. Best thing he can hope for is to fight Maskaev. But Goossen has not done a damn thing for james in a while so I even doubt that one will come off.