What do you think Callum Smith's chances are?

I think Beterbiev has enough IQ to know how to avoid that left hook

Fighters at this stage usually have the same set of patterns and once you know what they will do in certain scenarios they are far easier to predict.

When Beterbiev best Joe Smith in the post fight interview he said "Joe is a little bit open, so it was easy for me"....so Joe was open for that looping right hand over the top as he came in and that's what Beterbiev looked to land on the exchanges and openings when they presented themselves.

 

Smith is getting sparked

 

If Smith doesn't shell up like he did vs Canelo and actually has a go I think he has 30/70 chance.

Beterbiev has been hurt by 2 British fighters Yarde and Johnson who floored him and had him on wobbly legs.

Smith has enough power to hurt Beterbiev who isn't getting any younger and his style of fighting isn't suited for 40 year olds.

Overall I do favour Beterbiev though because of the past history of Smith struggling against pressure fighters like Ryder, Canelo.

But I think towards the end of Smith's 168 pound campaign he was weight drained and I think he looks better at 175 more stronger.

It will be an interesting fight and exciting whatever happens.

 

I don't get it:

Has Callum's power all of sudden magically and proportionately increased and travelled up as he has moved up to 175lbs? It doesn't work that way, otherwise everyone would just do SnC and move up a few divisions. Your power has a ceiling.

How much "bigger and stronger" is he now he doesn't have to cut another 7lbs in weight (ie, he isn't dehydrating himself for another few hours on a Thursday before the weigh-in)?

Didn't he have mega power in sparring when he WASN'T cutting weight? Or was he losing all his mythical power when he was cutting down to 168lbs and only regaining X amount as he rehydrated? That would still make him weaker than the sparring version of himself of a few weeks before the fight. Makes zero sense.

What difference can an extra 7lbs make when he is probably rehydrating to the SAME weight (on fight night) as he was when he was 168lbs? He was coming in at 185-190lbs as a SMW rehydrated and is around the same weight as a LHW now in the ring. His body has a maximum elasticity factor that needs to be considered which people are overlooking.

Furthermore, if he has such vaunted power, why not just skip 175lbs and move up to Cruiserweight instead?
He looks like he could fill it out nicely.
Of course he won't do that because his power won't increase proportionately like all his fanboys are making out to be.

The reality is that Smith is hoping and praying that Beterbiev gets OLD overnight and he can land his counter left hook and get a KO. Every single interview in the run upto the fight, Callum has talked about Beterbiev's age.

"Please God, let him be an old man and let me hit him before he hits me"

Personally, I see Beterbiev having too much ring IQ and will avoid that left hook and be able to reset Smith and probably time him coming in.

He's seen Smith's style many times as an amateur and it's nothing new. Smith is making himself out to be an oracle when we all know fighters revert to type when the pressure comes in.

 

That happened??

 

If this is anything apart from a Beterbiev domination I will know that Smith was paid to lose against Canelo.

 

I agree, but the puncher here is Beterbiev.

 

Let's revisit this post after the fight. Callum's only real chance is detonating his left hook on the button early enough that he can finish off the fight. It is possible, but I don't see it happening against a veteran, skilled boxer who trains religiously and keeps his body as a temple. Remember how long Hopkins fought before starting to put Beterbiev into the retirement village.

Smith's fight against Canelo, an inferior fighter to AB even comparing P4P, is the final evidence of how this fight will turn out.

It doesn't matter stylistically against a killer with the skills, movement and physical strength of Beterbiev, as we found out with Gvozdyk, who I thought was a good chance to beat Artoor. He can fight and defeat all styles as he is not one dimensional.

An absolute slickster would require a granite chin and excellent stamina and durability to survive AB. He has an extensive amateur pedigree so slicksters are not untouchable. He lands enough and they eventually go down.

A high quality boxer puncher, e.g. the Nail, needs the power to keep AB off him whilst banking rounds. AB has been down with flash knockdowns, so I guess he is stoppable, but his chin appears to be granite - every time he was clipped he pressed the destroy button and came back with a vengeance. The problem is avoiding Artoor's destructive and durability sapping punches. Noone has been able to do that yet. I feel the Nail came closest of all his opponents, but eventually started tiring and was subsequently a sitting duck. No disrespect, Gvozdyk is a great fighter unlucky and brave enough to have faced Beterbiev.

A slugger will get destroyed by AB, who maintains defensive responsibilities throughout the fight. For those that know about Chocolatitosl's boxing prowess, tell me how AB does not possess similar subtle movements, feints, and footwork, to be classified in a similar category?

In summary, Beterbiev is the ultimate boxer puncher. The casual's think he can't box because he knocks everyone out. The reality is he is a very skilled technician with real power and almost unmatched stamina. He is a more skilled version of Rocky Marciano IMHO.

Callum Smith will be broken down unless he can land the bomb.

 

Beterbiev is there to be hit, so Smith has a pretty good punchers chance here if he can detonate a nuke on Beterbievs chin.